Market Update: Freddie Mac Predictions for Mortgage Rates in 2020 New Record for Number of People Employed November Sales Results

Investing, Market Update

Fletcher Wilcox
V.P. Business Development & Real Estate Analyst, Grand Canyon Title Agency

 

November Sales Results for Maricopa County (Greater Phoenix) 

November 2019 sales of single-family resales were 4,979 which was eight percent higher than the 4,615 sales in November 2018. While overall sales were up year-over-year, there were 343 less sales under $200,000 this November compared to last November because of lack of inventory and rising purchase prices. At the same time, there were 642 more sales from $250,000 to $699,999. See table one for a breakdown of sales by price range.

Notable was the number of sales over $1,000,000. There were 188 which was 63 more this November than last November. Also noteworthy in November was the closing of the highest purchase price ever for a single-family resale. In Paradise Valley a home sold for $19,250,000. The approximate square footage of the home was 28,043. The listing agent was Christopher K. Karas, Launch Realty, and the buyer was represented by Walt Danley and Catherine Jacobson from Walt Danley Christie’s International Real Estate.

The median purchase price in November 2019 for a single-family resale was $315,000. This is $23,000 or eight percent higher than November 2018 when it was $292,000. The median purchase price was also $315,000 in October 2019.

New monthly listings of single-family resales in November 2019 were 5,360 which was 615 or ten percent lower than the 5,975 in November 2018. November 2019 new monthly listings were 1,625 or twenty-three percent less than the 6,985 new monthly listings in October 2019. Traditionally the two months of the year with the least number of new monthly listings are November and December.

Estimated months of supply for sales under $700,000 favor the seller. For all prices ranges under $700,000  the estimated months of supply is from less than one month to 2.9 months. The price range with the most sales is

$250,000 to $299,999. The estimated month of supply for this price range is one month. See table two.

 

Job Report for Maricopa County 

Chart one shows the number of people employed in Maricopa County for the month of October starting in 2009 all the way through 2019. Since 2009 the number of people employed in the month of October has increased each year for ten years. There were 485,100 more people employed in October 2019 than in October 2009. Also significant is that the number of people employed in October 2019 was 2,137,500. There has never been a single month in the history of Maricopa County with more people employed than in October 2019.

 

Freddie Mac Predictions for 2020 Mortgage Rate 

Chart two shows by quarter what the average thirty-year fixed mortgage rate was for all quarters in 2018 and 2019. The chart also shows what Freddie Mac predicts will be the average thirty-year fixed mortgage rate for all four quarters of 2020. The Freddie Mac prediction is continuing low rates for all four quarters next year with the first two quarters to have the lowest rates. If this prediction holds it will be good for homebuyers.

 

Conclusion 

2020 promises to be another good year for residential real estate in Maricopa County / Greater Phoenix if Freddie Mac is correct in their mortgage rate prediction and job growth continues to climb, which is likely.