2024 Outlook: Arizona Housing Market – Boom or Crash?

The real estate industry at large has received extensive press in recent months. If you’re considering getting your real estate license in Arizona, you may be following current market analysis to determine whether it’s a good time to enter the profession.

Let’s look at the current Arizona market analysis – and how industry leaders interpret that information to make expert predictions and opinions for 2024.

Current Arizona Market Analysis and Comparison with Previous Years

What’s going on in Arizona real estate? Here’s what the most current data shows.

Key Takeaways

• The average home price in Arizona is $434,865, marking a 4.3% increase year over year. Despite higher prices, the sale-to-list price ratio of 98.9 suggests a balanced market, favorable for both buyers and sellers. This ratio indicates that homes generally sell close to their listing prices, implying competitive pricing strategies in the market.
• Despite rising prices, the number of home sales has decreased by 6.2% year over year. The median days on the market have increased slightly to 51 days, indicating a trend towards homes staying listed longer before selling. However, the average months of supply remains stable at three months, suggesting a consistent level of housing inventory relative to demand.
• Experts predict continued growth in home prices throughout 2024, reflecting overall market health. There is optimism that the market will remain stable without imminent signs of a crash. Factors such as mortgage interest rates, which are expected to stabilize above 6%, will continue to influence buyer behavior and market dynamics going forward.

1. Home prices

According to data collected by Zillow, the average home price in Arizona is $434,865. This is up by 4.3% year over year (YoY).

2. Sale-to-list price ratio

The sale-to-list ratio is the final sale price divided by the last list price – based as a percentage. If it's above 100%, the home sold for more than the list price. If it's less than 100%, the property sold for less than the list price. Arizona’s sale-to-list price ratio is 98.9.

A higher sale-to-list ratio indicates a seller’s market and suggests a seller can price the home more aggressively. Conversely, a lower sale-to-list ratio points to a buyer’s market, where more flexible pricing may be necessary.

3. Home sales

While home prices have increased, the number of home sales in Arizona has decreased by 6.2% YoY.

4. Median days on the market

The median days on the market for homes for sale was 51 days, up three days YoY.

5. Months of supply

The average months of supply has remained steady at three months.

Economic Factors Impacting the Market

It’s no secret that the current mortgage interest rates are affecting home sales in Arizona and the rest of the country. However, mortgage interest rates are expected to stabilize (but will remain above 6%) in the last quarter of 2024.

Expert Predictions and Opinions for 2024

High mortgage rates and home prices may sound like bad news for Arizona real estate agents. However, here’s what is predicted for the Arizona real estate market in 2024.

It’s a good time to buy . . . and sell in Arizona.

While it may seem odd that it’s a good time to buy and sell in Arizona, the data indicates a balanced landscape. The median sale-to-list ratio indicates a favorable environment for buyers and sellers.

Home prices will continue to increase in Arizona.

The data indicates that there will be a steady growth in home prices, which aligns with the overall health of the housing market. Here are some of the up-and-coming neighborhoods in Arizona real estate to watch in 2024 and beyond.

There are no imminent signs of a real estate market crash in Arizona.

The robust demand for housing in Arizona suggests a stable market. Moderate declines (or stabilization) in some markets will be paired with solid growth in others.

And what about a reverse market crash?

For those unfamiliar with the term, a reverse market crash is characterized by a sudden rise in asset prices, leading to the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. A reverse market crash in Arizona is also unlikely.

Buyers will return to the market.

Mortgage demand rose after the interest rates lowered slightly in November. We’ll see more buyers return to the market as interest rates level out later in the year.

We’ve given you a lot of data and analysis to digest, but what does it all mean for someone interested in becoming an Arizona real estate agent? In short, if you have considered a real estate career in Arizona, now is the time to act. After all, other want-to-be agents may be waiting for perfect market conditions to enter the industry. It's a good idea to be licensed and established when home sales rise again.

Become an agent by taking real estate license courses online, in person, or via livestream with the Arizona School of Real Estate and Business (ASREB). You’ll learn everything you need to know to pass the Arizona salesperson exam. (We have the best pass rates in the state!) When you are ready to advance your career and earn your broker license, we can also help you with that process.

Contact ASREB today to learn more about the Arizona licensing process.

Sources:

1. “Arizona Housing Market.” Zillow. Accessed June 17, 2024. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/8/az/.
2. Redfin. “House Prices & Trends.” Redfin. Accessed June 17, 2024. https://www.redfin.com/state/Arizona/housing-market.